JJ Hand Revealed
Blinds are 10k/20k, with an ante of... let's say 1k. I've got 375,000, and one of the chip leaders is at our table with around 700,000.
I find JJ UTG+1 and raise it 70,000 or 3.5BB.
Folds to big stack, who calls in MP.
Folds around to the BB who pushes for 170,000 total.
I clicked for more time...
What do you do here? What hand ranges do you put MP and the BB on?
Dr. Chako: I push in over the top and hope the big stack folds. Great odds.
Shrike: Peanut butter and JAAAAM!
Waffles: I think the SB is stealing the dead money. Perfect spot to jam.
Schaubs: Golf is fun.
I'm glad you guys took time to comment, or else this wouldn't be nearly as fun to say: you're all wrong! ah HAHAHA! Well, maybe not wrong, but you wouldn't have liked the results.
When the big stack flat-called my raise I was okay with that, thinking maybe he is just trying to push me off my hand since we both have big stacks. When the SB pushes over the top I am pretty sure I have the SB beat with the range of hands he can have, I mean, he can have AA-QQ here, but there are a lot of other marginal hands we can put him on because of the money already in the pot and him getting low on chips.
So, I think I have the SB beat, but now I click for more time and revisit the MP flat-call... and it starts to scare me. I try to put him on a hand, and that scares me even more. Why is he flat-calling me in middle position? AA or KK immediately pop into my head. The only two hands that really make sense for him to have, because I hadn't seen a flat call from MP in the last two hours of the tournament... he wants someone else to call or push over the top.
I am pretty sure MP has aces or kings, but I still wonder if I can fold in this spot. I let the time bank get down, and eventually, reluctantly fold. MP snap-calls with aces. SB has AKo. The aces hold up.
As the hand finished, I was extremely happy with my play. I was almost giddy that I called the guy's hand and was able to fold the best hand I'd seen in an hour. Looking back at the hand and analyzing it, I am still pretty happy with my play, especially realizing there is a difference between flat-calling from MP and flat-calling from late position. I do think my fold is on the weakish side, and a push really isn't a terrible play here on my part. I guess the thing I am most proud of is deducing a read out of the betting, and sticking to that read.
To finish off this hand, I wonder what percentage of the time MP has an inferior hand and folds to my push. What do you think? More than 50% of the time he folds, or less? And if he folds greater than 50% of the time, does that make pushing the right play? If he folds less than 50% of the time, does that make folding the right play? Is there a right play?!?!